Bitcoin Price to Return Above $100,000? Here's the Analysis

Bitcoin touched a new all-time high of $99,700 on May 8! While this dip has sparked uncertainty among traders, especially with upcoming macroeconomic events like the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin's long-term bullish trajectory remains intact.

Short-Term Weakness Amid Market Caution

The recent correction in Bitcoin price has coincided with growing uncertainty ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on May 7.

While CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates only a slight chance of a rate cut, crypto markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin is still trading above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently near $99,630, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in a positive zone—signaling that buyers continue to have the upper hand.

Analysts warn, however, that if BTC fails to rebound from its current levels and falls below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $86,682, the correction could deepen. Yet, if the bulls hold support above $95,000, the next target remains clear: the psychological $100,000 barrier.

Institutional Inflows and Dominance Signal Strength

Despite the price volatility, institutional appetite for Bitcoin continues to surge. Between April 22 and May 2, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw inflows of $4.5 billion, while open interest in Bitcoin futures soared 21% since March, totaling 669,090 BTC, according to CoinGlass.

Notably, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now holds over $13.5 billion in open interest, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's market dominance has climbed to 70%, the highest since January 2021, even amid a flurry of new token launches like SUI, TON, TAO, and TRUMP.

This dominance underscores a strong investor preference for Bitcoin over riskier altcoins, especially in an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Macro Uncertainty and Policy Gaps Create Headwinds

Despite solid fundamentals, Bitcoin's ascent toward $100,000 is not without hurdles. Investor confidence has been tempered by the lack of progress on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill, announced in March.

To date, there’s been no clarity on government Bitcoin holdings or purchase plans, with similar efforts at the state level, such as in Arizona, also stalling.

Global tensions, particularly surrounding the U.S.—China trade relations, continue to suppress risk appetite. While Bitcoin has long been touted as a hedge against traditional markets, recent performance suggests otherwise.

Over the past three months, gold prices have risen 16%, while Bitcoin dropped 5%, and the S&P 500 declined 6.5%, prompting questions about Bitcoin’s safe-haven status.

Strategy’s Bold Bet: Doubling Down on Bitcoin

One of the most bullish signals for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor.

On May 5, the company announced the acquisition of 1,895 BTC, followed by an SEC filing revealing a total purchase of 6,556 BTC between April 28 and May 4 at an average price of $95,167.

This brings Strategy’s total holdings to 555,450 BTC, valued at over $38 billion, with an average purchase price of $68,550 per coin.

To support these purchases, Strategy raised $128.5 million via its at-the-market (ATM) program and an additional $51.8 million through preferred share sales, maximizing its previous $21 billion ATM offering.

Looking ahead, the company unveiled its ambitious 42/42 Plan, a roadmap to raise $84 billion over two years, split equally between equity and debt, exclusively to acquire more BTC.

Despite posting five consecutive quarterly losses, investor sentiment toward Strategy remains optimistic due to its BTC-heavy balance sheet, which now represents nearly 3% of Bitcoin's total supply.

Altcoins Show Isolated Strength Amid Bitcoin Consolidation

While Bitcoin consolidates, several altcoins are showing bullish patterns:

1. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is testing resistance at $21.50, with strong support from a rising 20-day EMA and near-overbought RSI.

2. Aave (AAVE) rebounded from its moving average on April 30 and is eyeing $196 as the next resistance level.

3. Render (RNDR) is attempting a breakout past $4.87, while buyers defend support at the 20-day EMA near $4.31.

4. Fetch.ai (FET) has corrected from $0.84 to $0.65, with the 20-day EMA serving as a potential bounce point.

These movements show that selective altcoin strength persists, particularly in tokens with active development and strong community backing.

Conclusion: The Path to $100,000 Is Still in Sight

Despite the short-term volatility and policy-related headwinds, the foundation for a new Bitcoin all-time high in 2025 remains strong. Institutional demand is robust, market dominance is rising, and strategic corporate acquisitions underscore long-term confidence in BTC.

For Bitcoin to break through $100,000, clarity on global economic policy, especially U.S.-China trade relations and Federal Reserve decisions, will be key. But with growing institutional commitment, a supportive macro backdrop could quickly reignite bullish momentum.

As it stands, the Bitcoin bulls are regrouping, not retreating.