XRP at a Crossroads: Legal Breakthroughs, Political Endorsement, and ETF Hype Fuel Market Momentum

XRP has once again seized the spotlight amid a dramatic convergence of political intrigue, legal developments, and renewed institutional interest.

The token's recent surge has been anything but ordinary, propelled by an unexpected endorsement from former President Donald Trump, speculation surrounding a potential XRP-spot ETF, and a possible settlement in its long-running legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Trump’s Surprise Endorsement Ignites Political and Market Debate

In a move that caught both Washington and Wall Street off guard, former President Donald Trump publicly suggested that XRP could serve as a strategic reserve currency, potentially rivaling the U.S. dollar.

Posted on Truth Social, his remarks sent shockwaves through both the political and crypto communities.

While some close to the former president believe he may have been influenced by pro-XRP advocates or misinformed advisors, the endorsement has sparked intense debate about the future role of cryptocurrencies in national monetary policy.

Critics argue that Trump may not fully grasp the ongoing legal complexities surrounding Ripple, while others see his comments as a sign of growing political entanglement in digital asset discourse.

Legal Turmoil: Ripple’s Partial Settlement With SEC and Renewed Scrutiny

Just days before the Trump announcement, Ripple reached a $50 million settlement on one aspect of its legal battle with the SEC. Though this sparked a temporary surge in XRP price, the situation remains unresolved.

The SEC has now filed a motion to lift the longstanding injunction against XRP’s institutional sales and reduce Ripple’s $125 million penalty, raising hopes for a full resolution.

Legal experts caution that political noise could complicate the matter. “The legal system doesn’t react well to political interference, especially in unresolved cases,” one compliance analyst noted.

The appearance of XRP in a draft policy document on strategic reserves also triggered regulatory red flags, with sources confirming due diligence reviews have been reopened.

ETF Speculation Heats Up: Is BlackRock Eyeing XRP?

Market sentiment turned euphoric over the weekend following speculation that BlackRock may be preparing to file for an XRP-spot ETF.

While not officially confirmed, a leaked letter hinted that the asset management giant has been in discussions with the SEC's Crypto Task Force about expanding its ETF offerings.

BlackRock’s previous success with its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which attracted over $44 billion in inflows, has only added fuel to the fire.

Should BlackRock pursue an XRP-based product, the implications for institutional demand could be massive, possibly unlocking a wave of capital not yet seen in XRP’s history.

Price Action: XRP Struggles to Hold Above Key Levels

Despite the bullish backdrop, XRP’s price has faced resistance at $2.50, failing to maintain momentum after Trump’s endorsement and legal optimism.

On May 13, the token down 0,85% to $2.53, underperforming both Bitcoin and Solana. Profit-taking near resistance led to an estimated $360 million in market outflows within 24 hours.

Still, technical analysts remain cautiously optimistic. XRP is holding above key support at $2.36, the midline of the Keltner Channel.

A breakout above $2.50, backed by high trading volume, could lead to a run at $2.75 and potentially $3.00. Derivative markets also reflect defensive positioning, with Open Interest down 4.7% and funding rates stabilizing.

XRP’s Growing Adoption and Investor Confidence

Despite the volatility, indicators show rising investor confidence:

1. Holders of XRP increased by over 11% year-to-date.

2. Travala.com now accepts XRP as payment.

3. Missouri’s House Bill 594 offers a full income tax deduction on crypto capital gains, including XRP.

XRP even briefly overtook USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization before retreating. According to Santiment, these milestones point to increasing confidence in a favorable outcome to the Ripple case.

Analyst Insights: XRP Rally May Just Be Starting

Pseudonymous trader DonAlt, who correctly predicted XRP’s late-2024 breakout, believes XRP is still in the early stages of a broader move. The token recently broke out of a multi-month range, and if it can surpass $2.75, the rally could accelerate significantly.

Other analysts project a bullish continuation pattern forming, with targets set as high as $3.43 if ETF rumors are substantiated and legal clarity emerges. However, a drop below $2.24 could reverse momentum and expose XRP to a deeper correction toward $1.93.

Macro Factors: Trade Talks and Inflation Sentiment Provide Tailwinds

Global market sentiment has turned positive following renewed U.S.–China trade negotiations. Trump’s softened stance on tariffs and inflation concerns has led to greater risk appetite across asset classes, benefiting digital assets like XRP.

The Ripple Fear and Greed Index has jumped to 65, marking “Extreme Greed”, with trading volumes trending 38% above the 30-day average. Such metrics indicate sustained investor enthusiasm despite the legal and political uncertainty.

Conclusion: XRP’s Path Forward

XRP is now navigating a critical inflection point. The combination of (1) A high-profile political endorsement; (2) An impending legal resolution; and (3) ETF speculation involving BlackRock, has transformed the token’s short-term narrative from uncertainty to optimism.

Yet, major questions remain. Can XRP break and sustain levels above $2.50? Will the SEC’s case finally resolve in Ripple’s favor? And could an ETF provide the same kind of institutional tailwind that has propelled Bitcoin to new heights?

XRP may not yet be a “millionaire-maker,” but the coming weeks could define its role in the future of finance, whether as a major institutional asset or simply another volatile altcoin navigating the crypto rollercoaster.