Ethereum on the Brink: Will ETH Crash Below $2,400 or Explode Toward $3,000 as War Fears Roil Markets?

Ethereum (ETH) has returned to a pivotal support level around $2,500, following a convergence of bearish catalysts, ranging from declining investor activity and rising technical resistance to geopolitical instability and market-wide liquidations.

As the market braces for continued volatility, analysts are watching both the ETH/BTC ratio and global risk factors for signs of what’s next.

Options Expiry Spurs Volatility Ahead of Key Price Decisions

One of the most immediate sources of price tension is Ethereum’s upcoming options expiry. With more than 56,000 ETH contracts set to expire on June 21, split between approximately 33,000 call options and 23,500 puts, traders are positioned for significant price action.

According to data from Laevitas, much of the open interest is concentrated near current price levels. This alignment raises the likelihood of ETH gravitating toward the “max pain” point, where the highest number of options expire worthless, amplifying short-term volatility.

Investor Confidence Wanes as DeFi Outflows Accelerate

Ethereum’s Total Value Locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) has dropped from 28 million ETH in early May to just over 25 million, representing a 10% contraction in six weeks.

The rapid outflow, highlighted by DefiLlama, signals either profit-taking behavior or a shift in capital to other chains or assets.

This cooling enthusiasm across DeFi platforms suggests speculative capital is retreating, with investor sentiment shifting from growth to caution.

Technical Headwinds Limit Recovery Attempts

ETH’s price has struggled to breach the $2,565 resistance, which coincides with the intersection of the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). After a brief attempt to rally, ETH was rejected and fell back below $2,500, prompting fears of a deeper correction.

Heightened trading volume during the recent decline further supports a sell-off narrative. Analysts are now watching key levels:

1. Support: $2,475 and $2,385

2. Resistance: $2,525 and $2,700

A confirmed break below support could trigger a slide toward $2,385, while a push above $2,525 might renew bullish momentum.

ETH/BTC Ratio at Crucial Turning Point

The ETH/BTC ratio is another crucial metric. Analyst M-log1 noted the ratio has approached a long-tested support line, with bulls defending it eight times in recent weeks. With seller momentum fading, there's an 80% probability of a breakout to the upside, M-log1 estimates.

If ETH begins outperforming BTC, this could usher in a broader altcoin rally, a sentiment echoed by analyst Daan, who pinpoints 0.026 BTC as a breakout threshold for Ethereum dominance.

Macro Risks: Middle East Tensions and U.S. Policy Add Fuel to the Fire

Ethereum’s price weakness is also unfolding against a backdrop of mounting geopolitical tension and restrictive monetary policy. Bitcoin has already plunged below $100,000 (a psychological and technical threshold) after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran, with fears the conflict could expand regionally.

Compounding this, Iran’s parliament has reportedly approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil traffic. A complete shutdown would not only spike oil prices but also dent global risk appetite, historically bad news for crypto assets.

ETH Exchange Activity Suggests Bearish Tilt — But Long-Term Accumulation Grows

Ethereum has seen four straight days of net inflows to centralized exchanges, totaling 285,000 ETH, according to CryptoQuant.

This trend indicates sustained sell-side pressure. Meanwhile, futures open interest surged by 720,000 ETH, likely driven by short positions, contributing to over $163 million in ETH liquidations in just 24 hours.

Still, structural signs remain encouraging:

1. Accumulation addresses (wallets with no history of selling) have grown by 5 million ETH in June.

2. Staked ETH has reached a record high of 35.1 million, with 500,000 ETH added in just two weeks.

3. New Ethereum addresses are rising, hitting 800K–1M weekly.

These trends suggest long-term confidence remains intact, even as short-term traders adjust to volatile conditions.

Chart Watch: ETH Poised at Triangle Apex

ETH is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle, bounded above by the 200-day SMA and below by the 50-day EMA. A decisive breakout could define Ethereum’s next leg:

1. Bullish breakout: Targets $2,850 and possibly $3,000.

2. Bearish breakdown: Risks retesting support near the 100-day SMA.

Technical indicators like the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator lean bearish, but neither is deeply oversold, suggesting room for further downside before a rebound.

Conclusion: Ethereum at a Crossroads

Ethereum stands at a defining moment. Despite clear signs of short-term bearish momentum, critical support at $2,400 has not yet broken. Meanwhile, ETH’s correlation to Bitcoin and global risk sentiment remains high, with the ETH/BTC ratio potentially triggering a larger altcoin recovery, or collapse.

In the days ahead, traders and investors should closely monitor:

1. Options expiry outcomes

2. $2,400 support and $2,700 resistance

3. ETH/BTC ratio movement

4. Geopolitical developments and oil prices

If Ethereum can hold its ground and break above $2,700, the path toward $3,000 remains viable. But failure to do so, especially in a risk-off environment, could spark a deeper retracement.